Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Kyle FarmerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Chapman homered to center (402 feet), Yastrzemski scored, Adames scored and Lee scored.3–6
- 6Lee singled to center, Matos scored, Adames to second, Yastrzemski to third.3–2
- 6Farmer reached on infield single to shortstop, McMahon scored, Goodman to third.3–1
- 6Goodman singled to left, Beck scored, McMahon to second.2–1
- 6McMahon singled to right, Doyle scored, Beck to third.1–1
- 3Matos homered to left center (392 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SF 70%
- ML COL +225 / SF -275
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- SF: Elo 65.9%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -238
- COL +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 5.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −14 | COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +114 Elo | SF 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 68.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–15 | Road vs home | 10–58th of 30 |
| 5th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 29th of 301412 | Elo rating | 151313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–19 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 11–16 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–22 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 8–20 SF in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 28.