Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting1-4
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 3Chapman homered to left center (418 feet).0–4
- 2Wade Jr. scored on Senzatela wild pitch.0–3
- 2Wade Jr. scored on Senzatela wild pitch.0–3
- 2Huff hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramos scored, Wade Jr. to third.0–2
- 2Wade Jr. doubled to second, Flores scored, Ramos to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SF 71%
- ML COL +235 / SF -290
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- SF: Elo 68.0%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -249
- COL +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 5.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +11 | COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +131 Elo | SF 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 69.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +0.79th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–14 | Road vs home | 9–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15096th of 30 |
| 29th of 301414 | Elo rating | 151113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–18 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 11–15 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–21 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 8–19 SF in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 27.