San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4
- Ben BrownPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 4Crow-Armstrong doubled to left, Hoerner scored.3–1
- 4Koss singled to center, Flores scored, Wade Jr. thrown out at home.3–0
- 4Wade Jr. doubled to right, Chapman scored, Flores to third.2–0
- 1Flores singled to right, Yastrzemski scored, Adames to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML SF +140 / CHC -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -149
- SF +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.3 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −2 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +22 Elo | CHC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 6.01st of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 10–613th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15231st of 30 |
| 13th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15385th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–18 | 19–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 12–10 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–14 | 24–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–9 CHC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.