San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting3-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Miguel AmayaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Bailey hit sacrifice fly to center, Flores scored.14–5
- 11Ramos doubled to left, Chapman scored, Flores to third.13–5
- 11Flores singled to left, Lee scored, Chapman to third.12–5
- 11Chapman singled to left, Adames scored and Yastrzemski scored, Lee to second.11–5
- 11Lee singled to right, Wisely scored, Adames to second, Yastrzemski to third.9–5
- 11Adames hit by pitch, Bailey scored, Yastrzemski to second, Wisely to third.8–5
- 11Wisely hit sacrifice bunt, Ramos scored, Bailey to second.7–5
- 11Bailey singled to center, Koss scored, Ramos to third.6–5
- 9Tucker singled to center, Kelly scored, Bruján to second.5–5
- 9Turner singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored, Kelly to third.5–4
- 5Berti reached on infield single to second, Swanson scored.5–3
- 4Wisely hit sacrifice bunt to second, Ramos scored.5–2
- 3Amaya homered to left center (379 feet), Swanson scored.4–2
- 3Lee homered to right (385 feet), Adames scored.4–0
- 2Bailey hit sacrifice fly to left, Wade Jr. scored.2–0
- 2Ramos reached on infield single to third, Chapman scored on error, Wade Jr. to second, Wade Jr. safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Berti.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML SF +130 / CHC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- SF +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.9 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −4 | SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +54 Elo | CHC 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 6.01st of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.91st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 10–511th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15231st of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–18 | 19–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 12–9 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 22–14 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 5–9 CHC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.