Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chayce McDermottPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Clemens homered to right (367 feet), Castro scored and Lewis scored.8–6
- 5Castro homered to right center (402 feet).5–6
- 3Kjerstad homered to right center (388 feet).4–6
- 3Mullins homered to right (372 feet), Mountcastle scored, O'Hearn scored and Laureano scored.4–5
- 3Henderson singled to right, Holliday scored, Mountcastle to second.4–1
- 3Clemens singled to right, Lee scored, Clemens thrown out at second.4–0
- 2Larnach homered to right (388 feet), Bride scored.3–0
- 1Bader reached on infield single to shortstop, Buxton scored, Castro to second, Jeffers to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML MIN +120 / BAL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- MIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Chayce McDermott: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN 0 Elo | MIN 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.728th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–14 | Road vs home | 8–1025th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 17th of 301504 | Elo rating | 149022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–17 | 15–25 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–9 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 16–26 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–10 BAL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.