Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8White singled to right, Riley scored.2–5
- 8Abrams homered to right (369 feet).2–4
- 6Abrams scored on error, Ruiz safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Riley.1–4
- 5Ozuna hit sacrifice fly to center, Verdugo scored.0–4
- 5Baldwin singled to center, Allen scored, Verdugo to third.0–3
- 5Verdugo singled to right, Albies scored, Allen to third.0–2
- 3Allen singled to center, White scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 64%
- ML WSH +165 / ATL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 63.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -177
- WSH +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +10 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +97 Elo | ATL 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 21st of 308–14 | Road vs home | 14–78th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 26th of 301456 | Elo rating | 15259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–22 | 18–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 11–19 |
| Underdog | 22–14 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–23 | 17–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 14–15 ATL in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 29.