Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- DaShawn Keirsey Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-4
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lewis singled to left, Castro scored.4–0
- 3Buxton homered to center (401 feet).3–0
- 3Keirsey Jr. homered to right (374 feet), Lewis scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML MIN +110 / BAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +22 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 1.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +26 Elo | BAL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.824th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 21st of 308–14 | Road vs home | 8–1126th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 17th of 301506 | Elo rating | 148923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–17 | 15–26 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–9 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 17–26 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–10 BAL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.