Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lowe hit sacrifice fly to left, Tena scored.3–5
- 2Crews homered to left (404 feet).3–4
- 2Harris II doubled to center, White scored.3–3
- 2White doubled to left, Albies scored.2–3
- 2Olson homered to center (419 feet).1–3
- 1Ruiz scored on Strider wild pitch, García Jr. to second on wild pitch by Strider.0–3
- 1Ruiz scored on Strider wild pitch, García Jr. to second on wild pitch by Strider.0–3
- 1García Jr. singled to right, Lowe scored, Ruiz to third.0–2
- 1Ruiz doubled to right, Wood scored, Lowe to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 61%
- ML ATL -175 / WSH +145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -156
- WSH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 3.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −1 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +57 Elo | ATL 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 11th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.023rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–16 | Road vs home | 10–1224th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 8th of 301530 | Elo rating | 146224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–25 | 25–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–19 | 0–8 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 25–15 |
| Overs–unders | 19–28 | 23–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 16–14 WSH in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 30.