Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Story singled to center, Bregman scored.4–2
- 9Allen walked, Albies scored, Fairchild to second, Harris II to third.4–1
- 9Fairchild walked, Williams scored, Harris II to second, Albies to third.3–1
- 7Refsnyder homered to left (368 feet).2–1
- 2Murphy homered to left center (384 feet).2–0
- 2Olson homered to left center (378 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML ATL -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +18 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +2 Elo | ATL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 307–15 | Road vs home | 11–917th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Elo rating | 150018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–25 | 25–20 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–19 | 12–14 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–27 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–4 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.