Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean NewcombPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Toro homered to right (356 feet).2–14
- 7Malloy scored on error, McKinstry safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Toro.1–14
- 6Báez singled to center, Dingler scored.1–13
- 6Abreu homered to right (375 feet).1–12
- 4Báez singled to center, McKinstry scored, Sweeney to second.0–12
- 3Malloy singled to left, Carpenter scored, Torres to second.0–11
- 3Torres singled to right, Báez scored, Carpenter to third.0–10
- 3Sweeney homered to right center (396 feet), McKinstry scored and Dingler scored.0–9
- 3Greene singled to right, Torres scored on fielding error by right fielder Abreu, Greene scored on error and Keith scored on error.0–6
- 3Carpenter scored on Houck wild pitch, Keith to second, Torres to third.0–3
- 3Carpenter scored on Houck wild pitch, Keith to second on wild pitch by Houck, Torres to third on wild pitch by Houck.0–3
- 1Torres homered to left center (432 feet), Carpenter scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML BOS -115 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 42.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −3 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +51 Elo | DET 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.82nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 14–54th of 30 |
| 30th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 17th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–19 | 25–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 15–8 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 20–22 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–5 DET in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.