Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-4
- Angel ChivilliPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goodman hit sacrifice fly to left, Beck scored.10–2
- 7Báez singled to right, Torkelson scored.10–1
- 5Trejo hit sacrifice fly to center, Martini scored, Moniak to third.9–1
- 3Malloy singled to right, Sweeney scored.9–0
- 3Sweeney singled to right, Báez scored on throwing error by right fielder Moniak, Sweeney to second.8–0
- 2Torkelson doubled to left, McKinstry scored and Torres scored.7–0
- 2Ibáñez hit sacrifice fly to right, Malloy scored, Torres to third.5–0
- 2McKinstry grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Sweeney scored, Torres safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Trejo, Malloy to third.4–0
- 2Torres singled to left, Nido scored, Malloy to second, Sweeney to third.3–0
- 1Torkelson singled to left, Ibáñez scored.2–0
- 1Ibáñez doubled to right, McKinstry scored on error, Ibáñez safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Amador.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML DET -160 / COL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- DET: Elo 64.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -145
- COL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.2 – 4.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +3 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +107 Elo | DET 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 66.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 9th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 4–1230th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15144th of 30 |
| 6th of 301534 | Elo rating | 140829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–13 | 13–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–6 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 11–19 |
| Overs–unders | 19–17 | 13–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–2 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.