Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 10Torkelson scored on error, Sweeney safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Beck, Sweeney safe at second on error.8–6
- 10Torkelson doubled to right, Greene scored.7–6
- 4Beck singled to left, Trejo scored.6–6
- 4Keith singled to center, Sweeney scored, Báez to third.6–5
- 4Báez singled to center, Dingler scored and McKinstry scored, Sweeney to second.5–5
- 3Toglia homered to right (413 feet), McMahon scored.3–5
- 3Torres hit sacrifice fly to right, Báez scored.3–3
- 3Báez singled to center, Dingler scored and Sweeney scored.2–3
- 2Doyle reached on infield single to third, Moniak scored.0–3
- 1McMahon homered to center (436 feet), Beck scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 60%
- ML DET -165 / COL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- DET: Elo 64.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.2 – 4.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +104 Elo | DET 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.129th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 12th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 4–1130th of 30 |
| 8th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15134th of 30 |
| 6th of 301532 | Elo rating | 140929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–13 | 13–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–6 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 11–18 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17 | 12–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–2 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.