Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Sam HaggertyBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 6Haggerty singled to right, Smith scored, Duran to second.1–2
- 4Keith singled to center, Greene scored.0–2
- 2Dingler doubled to center, Keith scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- DET 71%
- ML TEX +235 / DET -290
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- DET: Elo 63.1%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -249
- TEX +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 2.7 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +17 | TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +93 Elo | DET 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 68.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.34th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | +2.21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 21st of 306–12 | Road vs home | 13–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Elo rating | 15385th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–21 | 25–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 15–6 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–26 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 8–6 DET in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.