Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-4
- Logan EvansPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Langford hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.1–8
- 8Smith tripled to right, Jung scored.1–7
- 3Jung singled to left, Heim scored, A. García to second.1–6
- 3A. García singled to center, Seager scored and Semien scored, Heim to third.1–5
- 3Semien singled to left, Langford scored, Seager to second.1–3
- 3Seager singled to right, Crim scored and Smith scored, Langford to third.1–2
- 3Polanco grounded out to second, Rivas scored, Crawford to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 62%
- ML SEA +150 / TEX -180
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 48.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -161
- SEA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.7 – 4.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +9 | SEA: Logan Evans: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +9 Elo | SEA 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 11–817th of 30 |
| 25th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 6th of 301531 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–14 | 15–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–14 | 10–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 19–12 TEX in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 31.