Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Higashioka doubled to right, A. García scored, Ahmed scored and Burger scored.2–15
- 7Langeliers homered to left (390 feet), Brown scored.2–12
- 6Smith singled to left, Langford scored.0–12
- 6Langford doubled to left, A. García scored, Taveras scored and Burger scored.0–11
- 6A. García doubled to center, Heim scored, Jung scored and Semien scored.0–8
- 6Semien singled to left, Smith scored, Heim to third.0–5
- 4Jung singled to left, Heim scored, Jung to second, Semien to third.0–4
- 3Taveras singled to center, Semien scored, Burger to second.0–3
- 3Burger singled to right, Heim scored, Semien to third.0–2
- 2Smith singled to right, Burger scored, Taveras to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 65%
- ML ATH +175 / TEX -210
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 59.3%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -186
- ATH +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.6 – 4.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +9 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +65 Elo | TEX 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 1st of 309–5 | Road vs home | 10–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 30 |
| 27th of 301458 | Elo rating | 149221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–13 | 13–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 16–13 | 8–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 13–17 TEX in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 30.
