Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Butler homered to center (411 feet), Langeliers scored, Urías scored and Bleday scored.7–1
- 9Rooker homered to left (391 feet), Brown scored.3–1
- 4A. García singled to center, Semien scored.1–1
- 3Wilson reached on bunt single to first, Bleday scored, Butler to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 59%
- ML ATH +135 / TEX -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 60.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -145
- ATH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.8 – 4.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +7 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +76 Elo | TEX 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.56th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–6 | Road vs home | 11–45th of 30 |
| 25th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 27th of 301455 | Elo rating | 149621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–14 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–13 | 9–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 13–18 TEX in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 31.
