Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith homered to right (395 feet).13–1
- 9Crawford doubled to center, Mastrobuoni scored and Williamson scored.13–0
- 9Thomas grounded out to second, Tellez scored, Williamson to second, Mastrobuoni to third.11–0
- 6Rodríguez homered to center (431 feet), Garver scored.10–0
- 5Thomas hit sacrifice fly to left, Mastrobuoni scored.8–0
- 5Williamson doubled to right, Tellez scored, Mastrobuoni to third.7–0
- 5Tellez singled to center, Arozarena scored.6–0
- 5Raleigh homered to right (387 feet), Thomas scored, Polanco scored and Rodríguez scored.5–0
- 4Raleigh homered to right (432 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML SEA -135 / TEX +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- TEX +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −4 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +31 Elo | SEA 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.66th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 11–613th of 30 |
| 24th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Elo rating | 148922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–13 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 6–11 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–13 | 9–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 17–12 TEX in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 29.