Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tellez singled to center, Polanco scored.2–1
- 4Heim singled to right, Seager scored.1–1
- 1Crawford homered to right (369 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -130 / TEX +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.9 – 4.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −11 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +42 Elo | SEA 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.721st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 11–715th of 30 |
| 24th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 7th of 301530 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–13 | 14–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 6–11 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13 | 10–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 18–12 TEX in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 30.