Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jung homered to left center (393 feet).4–6
- 8Abreu homered to right (386 feet).3–6
- 7Bregman singled to left, Wong scored and Rafaela scored.3–5
- 6Abreu doubled to center, Bregman scored, Campbell thrown out at home.3–3
- 5A. García hit sacrifice fly to center, Seager scored, Pederson to third.3–2
- 4Abreu homered to right center (422 feet).2–2
- 4Bregman homered to left (383 feet).2–1
- 4A. García homered to left (398 feet).2–0
- 3Seager grounded out to second, Heim scored, Langford to second, Jung to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML TEX +120 / BOS -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -130
- TEX +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −12 | TEX: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +4 Elo | TEX 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 306–10 | Road vs home | 9–920th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 148030th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Elo rating | 149719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–19 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–25 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–8 BOS in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.