Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Kristian CampbellBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Sean NewcombPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Campbell singled to center, Bregman scored.6–1
- 4Langford singled to center, Heim scored, Smith to second.6–0
- 4Smith singled to right, Carter scored, Heim to third.5–0
- 4Heim singled to center, Semien scored, Carter to third.4–0
- 4A. García hit sacrifice fly to right, Pederson scored.3–0
- 4Pederson hit a ground rule double, Seager scored.2–0
- 1Langford scored on Giolito wild pitch, Pederson out at second on runner's fielder's choice.1–0
- 1Langford scored on Giolito wild pitch, Pederson out at second on runner's fielder's choice.1–0
- 1Langford scored on Giolito wild pitch, Pederson out at second on runner's fielder's choice.1–0
- 1Langford scored, Pederson out at second on runner's fielder's choice.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML TEX -120 / BOS +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 49.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −25 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 1.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +4 Elo | BOS 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 21st of 305–10 | Road vs home | 9–820th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 147930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Elo rating | 150017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–19 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–11 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–24 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 8–8 BOS in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.