Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-4
- Tanner GordonPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Malloy doubled to center, Hicklen scored, Jung scored and Sweeney scored.11–1
- 7Keith homered to right (450 feet), Carpenter scored.8–1
- 3Jung singled to right, Torkelson scored.6–1
- 3Torkelson doubled to center, Torres scored.5–1
- 3Torres doubled to center, Carpenter scored, Sweeney scored and Hicklen scored.4–1
- 3Carpenter grounded into fielder's choice to third, Dingler scored, Hicklen safe at second on fielding error by third baseman McMahon, Sweeney to third.1–1
- 2Miller grounded into fielder's choice to third, Moniak scored, Farmer out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 65%
- ML DET -210 / COL +175
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- DET: Elo 68.1%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -186
- COL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.9 – 4.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −12 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +131 Elo | DET 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.0 | Margin | −2.830th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 8th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 4–1330th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15144th of 30 |
| 6th of 301536 | Elo rating | 140629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–13 | 13–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–6 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 11–20 |
| Overs–unders | 20–17 | 14–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–2 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.