Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Tucker BarnhartBatting3-3
- Jack LeiterPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Devers homered to left center (379 feet).0–5
- 6Narváez singled to center, Story scored.0–4
- 5Devers singled to center, Rafaela scored.0–3
- 2Duran grounded out to second, Narváez scored, Rafaela to third.0–2
- 2Story scored on Leiter wild pitch, Rafaela to second on wild pitch by Leiter, Narváez to third on wild pitch by Leiter.0–1
- 2Story scored on Leiter wild pitch, Rafaela to second on wild pitch by Leiter, Narváez to third on wild pitch by Leiter.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML TEX +130 / BOS -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -140
- TEX +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +14 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +61 Elo | BOS 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–11 | Road vs home | 10–920th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 147930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Elo rating | 149917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–20 | 19–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–25 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–9 BOS in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.