Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to center, Torres scored.6–1
- 8Heim homered to left (364 feet).6–0
- 5Jung homered to left center (392 feet), Carter scored.5–0
- 3Carter singled to right, A. García scored.3–0
- 2Semien homered to left center (396 feet), A. García scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML TEX +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- DET: Elo 58.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.7 – 3.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +60 Elo | DET 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.44th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.91st of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 20th of 307–13 | Road vs home | 14–43rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301490 | Elo rating | 15355th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–21 | 25–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 15–7 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 13–27 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–7 DET in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.