Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9A. García grounded into fielder's choice to third, Duran scored, Semien out at second.10–3
- 9Semien reached on infield single to second, Langford scored, Duran to third.9–3
- 8Torres grounded out to shortstop, Carpenter scored.8–3
- 7Seager homered to right center (393 feet).8–2
- 5A. García hit sacrifice fly to right, Seager scored, Pederson to third.7–2
- 5Seager doubled to center, Langford scored.6–2
- 4Greene homered to left center (380 feet).5–2
- 3Pederson homered to right (401 feet), Langford scored.5–1
- 2Carter homered to right (390 feet).3–1
- 1Carpenter homered to right center (382 feet).2–1
- 1Seager homered to right center (403 feet).2–0
- 1Smith homered to right (389 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML TEX -130 / DET +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 44.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 3.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −18 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +40 Elo | DET 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.23rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | +2.21st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 306–13 | Road vs home | 14–32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 15395th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–21 | 25–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 15–7 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–27 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 8–7 DET in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.