Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Devers homered to center (440 feet), Duran scored.3–1
- 4Abreu homered to right (430 feet).1–1
- 3Isbel hit sacrifice bunt, Waters scored on throwing error by pitcher Giolito, Maile to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 55%
- ML BOS +115 / KC -135
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- KC: Elo 57.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | +7 | BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 1.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +54 Elo | KC 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.33rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 14th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 16–65th of 30 |
| 30th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 149325th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 150915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–19 | 19–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–21 | 15–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 10–5 KC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.