Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-4
- Jonathan CannonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Robert Jr. singled to left, Vargas scored.1–2
- 5Witt Jr. homered to left center (392 feet), Maile scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- KC 66%
- ML CHW +185 / KC -225
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- KC: Elo 66.1%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- KC -197
- CHW +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.5 – 5.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +116 Elo | KC 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 303–15 | Road vs home | 13–55th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 30th of 301407 | Elo rating | 150915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–16 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 18–18 | 13–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 7–21 KC in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 28.