Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Zach DezenzoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-3, 1 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Quero singled to left, Robert Jr. scored.4–5
- 6Robert Jr. singled to center, Meidroth scored.4–4
- 5Sosa singled to center, Quero scored and Robert Jr. scored, Rojas to second.4–3
- 5Rojas walked, Benintendi scored, Quero to second, Robert Jr. to third.4–1
- 5Dezenzo homered to left center (393 feet), Walker scored.4–0
- 2Dubón singled to center, Caratini scored and Dezenzo scored, Dubón to second, Meyers to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 62%
- ML HOU -185 / CHW +155
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -166
- CHW +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −8 | HOU: Lance McCullers Jr. (no track record yet) · CHW: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +100 Elo | HOU 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.625th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 6–1129th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149323rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301526 | Elo rating | 140830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–15 | 18–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | — |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 14–18 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 9–6 CHW in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.