Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting4-4, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meyers doubled to center, Dezenzo scored.8–3
- 8Dezenzo doubled to left, Caratini scored.7–3
- 6Meyers homered to left (409 feet), Dezenzo scored and Rodgers scored.6–3
- 4Meyers tripled to center, Diaz scored and Rodgers scored.3–3
- 3Meyers homered to left (386 feet).1–3
- 1Vaughn singled to center, Vargas scored and Benintendi scored.0–3
- 1Benintendi singled to left, Meidroth scored, Vargas to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 68%
- ML HOU -240 / CHW +195
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 65.0%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -208
- CHW +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.6 – 2.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −4 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +107 Elo | HOU 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 68.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.624th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 6–1029th of 30 |
| 14th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301524 | Elo rating | 141030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–15 | 18–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | — |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 13–18 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–6 CHW in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.