Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8M. Taylor doubled to left, Amaya scored.3–7
- 8Baldwin grounded out to pitcher, Palacios scored, Amaya to second.3–6
- 8Amaya singled to left, Quero scored, Palacios to third.3–5
- 8Diaz homered to center (409 feet).3–4
- 6Meyers singled to left, Diaz scored, Rodgers thrown out at third.2–4
- 5Quero singled to center, Vargas scored.1–4
- 5Robert Jr. homered to right center (407 feet).1–3
- 4Diaz doubled to center, Walker scored.1–2
- 2Meidroth singled to left, Dalbec scored, Baldwin to second.0–2
- 1Quero doubled to left, Meidroth scored, Robert Jr. thrown out at home.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 68%
- ML HOU -250 / CHW +200
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 65.3%, market 68.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -214
- CHW +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.1 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +3 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +110 Elo | HOU 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 69.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 68.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 5–1029th of 30 |
| 8th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149124th of 30 |
| 7th of 301528 | Elo rating | 140730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–14 | 17–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–10 | — |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders | 12–18 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–5 CHW in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.