Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting1-4
- Shane SmithPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-3, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Waters doubled to left, Garcia scored.0–3
- 5Witt Jr. doubled to right, Isbel scored, India to third.0–2
- 4Garcia singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- KC 65%
- ML CHW +175 / KC -210
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- KC: Elo 65.4%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -186
- CHW +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.1 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +111 Elo | KC 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 70.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.44th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 303–13 | Road vs home | 11–56th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 29th of 301410 | Elo rating | 150614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–15 | 17–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | — | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 18–16 | 13–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 7–19 KC in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 26.