Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Brooks BaldwinBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Royals- Kyle IsbelBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Witt Jr. singled to center, Waters scored, India to second, Fermin to third.3–4
- 9India reached on infield single to shortstop, Canha scored, Fermin to second, Waters to third.3–3
- 8Perez doubled to left, Pasquantino scored.3–2
- 8Rojas singled to left, Amaya scored, Baldwin to second.3–1
- 6Isbel homered to right center (391 feet).2–1
- 6Vaughn grounded into fielder's choice to third, Thaiss scored on fielding error by third baseman India.2–0
- 4Baldwin singled to left, Thaiss scored, Vaughn to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- KC 69%
- ML CHW +210 / KC -255
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- KC: Elo 67.0%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -223
- CHW +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 5.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +9 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +123 Elo | KC 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 303–14 | Road vs home | 12–55th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 30th of 301408 | Elo rating | 150815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–16 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | — | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 19–16 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17 | 13–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 7–20 KC in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 27.