Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 12Fermin singled to center, Massey scored.1–2
- 11Pasquantino singled to right, Waters scored, Witt Jr. to second.1–1
- 11Devers grounded out to shortstop, Rafaela scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 50%
- ML BOS -110 / KC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- KC: Elo 53.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -100
- BOS -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | BOS: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +25 Elo | KC 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 13th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 15–55th of 30 |
| 30th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Elo rating | 151115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–19 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–20 | 14–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–4 KC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.