Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Carlos NarvaezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4
- Cole RagansPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Devers singled to center, Rafaela scored.10–1
- 8Narváez homered to left center (403 feet), Sogard scored.9–1
- 7Story homered to left center (402 feet), Devers scored and Bregman scored.7–1
- 5Bregman reached on infield single to shortstop, Duran scored, Devers to second.4–1
- 5Devers singled to center, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.3–1
- 5Duran singled to right, Narváez scored, Rafaela to third.2–1
- 3Canha singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.1–1
- 3Devers doubled to left, Duran scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML BOS -105 / KC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- KC: Elo 53.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +6 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +21 Elo | KC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.11st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 15th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 16–55th of 30 |
| 30th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–19 | 19–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–21 | 14–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–5 KC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.