Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Alex BregmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Malloy singled to center, Ibáñez scored.5–6
- 7Devers singled to center, Rafaela scored, Duran to second.5–5
- 7Duran singled to center, Narváez scored, Rafaela to third.4–5
- 7Rafaela singled to right, Sogard scored, Narváez to second.3–5
- 6Sweeney hit sacrifice fly to center, Dingler scored.2–5
- 6Greene homered to right center (389 feet), Keith scored.2–4
- 4Dingler grounded into double play, third to second to first, Keith scored, Greene out at second.2–2
- 4Bregman homered to left center (405 feet).2–1
- 2Sweeney singled to left, Greene scored, Sweeney to second.1–1
- 1Refsnyder hit sacrifice fly to center, Devers scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 68%
- ML BOS +200 / DET -245
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- DET: Elo 59.4%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -213
- BOS +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.4 – 4.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +20 | BOS: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 1.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +66 Elo | DET 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +2.01st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 16–53rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15365th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–20 | 26–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 16–9 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 22–22 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–7 DET in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.