Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- David HamiltonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Báez homered to left (371 feet), Dingler scored and Jung scored.9–10
- 11Campbell homered to right center (363 feet), Duran scored.9–7
- 10Sweeney singled to right, McKinstry scored, Sweeney to second.7–7
- 10Rafaela grounded into fielder's choice to third, Sogard scored, Narváez out at second.7–6
- 8Hamilton homered to right (408 feet), Narváez scored.6–6
- 6Báez homered to left (392 feet), Torkelson scored and Jung scored.4–6
- 5Duran singled to left, Rafaela scored.4–3
- 5Rafaela doubled to left, Hamilton scored.3–3
- 4Torkelson homered to right (353 feet).2–3
- 4Bregman homered to left (375 feet).2–2
- 3Báez scored on pickoff error by catcher Narváez, Carpenter picked off third.1–2
- 3Báez scored on pickoff error by catcher Narváez, Carpenter picked off third.1–2
- 2Narváez singled to left, Sogard scored.1–1
- 1Greene singled to center, Carpenter scored, Greene to second, Torres thrown out at third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML BOS +105 / DET -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- DET: Elo 52.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.1 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −12 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +20 Elo | DET 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +2.01st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 15–53rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15355th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–20 | 26–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 16–8 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–22 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–6 DET in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.