Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-5, 3 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Holliday homered to right center (390 feet), Laureano scored and Mateo scored.10–6
- 9Mateo singled to center, Kjerstad scored, Laureano to second.10–3
- 9Ruiz singled to center, Lowe scored.10–2
- 9Lowe doubled to left, Tena scored and Wood scored.9–2
- 7Laureano doubled to right, Urías scored, Kjerstad to third.7–2
- 7Urías singled to center, Rutschman scored.7–1
- 2García Jr. doubled to left, Wood scored.7–0
- 1Young tripled to right, Bell scored.6–0
- 1Tena hit sacrifice fly to center, García Jr. scored, Bell to third.5–0
- 1García Jr. singled to right, Lowe scored and Ruiz scored.4–0
- 1Ruiz doubled to center, Wood scored, Lowe to third.2–0
- 1Wood singled to left, Abrams scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML WSH +125 / BAL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.9 – 5.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −24 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 1.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +21 Elo | BAL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.427th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–15 | Road vs home | 8–1328th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 26th of 301456 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–23 | 15–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–25 | 21–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–7 BAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.