Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sean NewcombPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ozuna homered to left center (430 feet), Riley scored.10–4
- 8Olson hit sacrifice fly to center, Verdugo scored.8–4
- 5Allen hit sacrifice fly to right, Albies scored, Harris II to third.7–4
- 5White singled to center, Baldwin scored, Harris II to second, Albies to third.6–4
- 5Harris II walked, Ozuna scored, Albies to second, Baldwin to third.5–4
- 4Riley singled to left, Allen scored, Verdugo to third.4–4
- 3Devers homered to center (442 feet), Hamilton scored, Rafaela scored and Duran scored.3–4
- 3Ozuna singled to center, Olson scored.3–0
- 1Albies grounded out to second, Riley scored, Baldwin to second, Olson to third.2–0
- 1Baldwin singled to left, Verdugo scored, Olson to second, Riley to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML ATL -125 / BOS +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 49.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.9 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +8 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +4 Elo | BOS 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–16 | Road vs home | 12–1017th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Elo rating | 150018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–25 | 25–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–19 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–28 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–5 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.