Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Devers homered to right center (402 feet).6–7
- 8Duran singled to right, Toro scored and Hamilton scored.6–6
- 7Bregman doubled to left, Devers scored.6–4
- 7Devers singled to left, Rafaela scored, Devers to second.6–3
- 4Riley singled to left, White scored.6–2
- 3Duran homered to center (411 feet), Narváez scored.5–2
- 3Baldwin homered to right (416 feet), Ozuna scored.5–0
- 1Ozuna homered to left center (417 feet).3–0
- 1Olson homered to center (393 feet), Riley scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML ATL +105 / BOS -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 45.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −18 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +29 Elo | ATL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–15 | Road vs home | 11–1019th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148929th of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 149918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–25 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–19 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–28 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–4 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.