Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.1 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wood singled to center, Abrams scored.10–4
- 8Bell homered to right center (433 feet).9–4
- 7Holliday homered to left center (402 feet).8–4
- 6Mullins doubled to right, O'Hearn scored.8–3
- 6Henderson homered to right center (359 feet).8–2
- 5Mullins homered to right (390 feet).8–1
- 4Wood hit sacrifice fly to left, Tena scored.8–0
- 2Ruiz singled to left, Wood scored.7–0
- 2Abrams homered to left center (373 feet).6–0
- 2Crews homered to left center (393 feet), Call scored and Tena scored.5–0
- 2García Jr. homered to right (367 feet).2–0
- 1Abrams homered to right (380 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 62%
- ML WSH +150 / BAL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 61.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -161
- WSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 5.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +23 | WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 1.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +79 Elo | BAL 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −1.829th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 8–1429th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 24th of 301459 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–23 | 15–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 7–18 |
| Underdog | 24–15 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 22–25 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–7 BAL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.