San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Sean ReynoldsPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harris II singled to right, Riley scored and Verdugo scored, Albies to third.1–7
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to left center (427 feet), Allen scored.1–5
- 3Albies reached on infield single to third, Riley scored, Verdugo to second.1–3
- 3Olson homered to left center (399 feet).1–2
- 3Machado singled to center, Lockridge scored.1–1
- 2Allen reached on infield single to third, Verdugo scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 58%
- ML SD +130 / ATL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -140
- SD +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 5.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −7 | SD: Sean Reynolds (no track record yet) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +16 Elo | ATL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.118th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 15–811th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 7th of 301529 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–21 | 22–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–13 | 13–22 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–28 | 20–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 15–6 ATL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.