San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Machado homered to left (422 feet).2–1
- 2Sheets homered to center (406 feet).1–1
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to center (467 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML SD +155 / ATL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- SD +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.2 – 4.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +11 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +29 Elo | ATL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 15–75th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 7th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–21 | 22–27 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–13 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–27 | 20–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 14–6 ATL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.