Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moore singled to left, Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored, Solano to second.4–1
- 7Raleigh homered to left center (399 feet).2–1
- 5Tellez homered to center (398 feet).1–1
- 4Sheets homered to center (401 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 63%
- ML SEA +160 / SD -190
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- SD: Elo 57.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -170
- SEA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.7 – 4.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −2 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +52 Elo | SD 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.55th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 16–64th of 30 |
| 24th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149326th of 30 |
| 11th of 301520 | Elo rating | 15414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–22 | 27–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 16–10 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–18 | 19–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 7–2 SD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.