New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Judge homered to left center (444 feet).3–2
- 7Goldschmidt homered to left (377 feet).2–2
- 6Domínguez doubled to right, Volpe scored.1–2
- 3Rodríguez doubled to right, Taveras scored and Rivas scored, Polanco to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML NYY -115 / SEA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 49.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +6 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +4 Elo | SEA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 13–1017th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301548 | Elo rating | 151812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–20 | 20–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 19–17 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–6 SEA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.