New York Yankees at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jasson DominguezBatting3-4, 3 HR, 7 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Butler singled to right, Langeliers scored.10–2
- 8Wilson singled to left, Schuemann scored, Kurtz to second.10–1
- 8Domínguez homered to right center (387 feet), Judge scored, Rice scored and Goldschmidt scored.10–0
- 8Rice doubled to left, Vivas scored, Judge to third.6–0
- 7Domínguez homered to center (431 feet).5–0
- 6Escarra scored, Grisham safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Urías.4–0
- 5Domínguez hit sacrifice fly to left, Grisham scored.3–0
- 3Domínguez homered to right center (398 feet).2–0
- 3Goldschmidt homered to center (417 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML NYY -155 / ATH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -140
- ATH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.6 – 4.9 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | 0 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATH: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +51 Elo | NYY 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 10th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 7–1128th of 30 |
| 5th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 148828th of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 146224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–18 | 22–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–15 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 10–3 ATH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.
