San Diego Padres at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bogaerts singled to left, Arraez scored and Machado scored.4–3
- 8Machado doubled to left, Wade scored and Lockridge scored, Arraez to third.2–3
- 6Volpe hit sacrifice fly to left, Goldschmidt scored.0–3
- 3Grisham homered to right (390 feet), Vivas scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML SD +135 / NYY -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- SD +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.3 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +15 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +19 Elo | NYY 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.52nd of 30 |
| 1st of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 7th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 11–714th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301548 | Elo rating | 15413rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–12 | 18–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–7 | 15–13 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–20 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 2–4 NYY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.