Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vivas singled to center, Goldschmidt scored and Domínguez scored.7–5
- 8Goldschmidt singled to left, Judge scored, Bellinger to second.7–3
- 7Aranda singled to right, Simpson scored and Walls scored, B. Lowe to third.7–2
- 6Bellinger homered to right center (395 feet), Grisham scored.5–2
- 4Díaz reached on infield single to shortstop, Simpson scored, B. Lowe to second.5–0
- 4B. Lowe singled to left, Jankowski scored and Walls scored, Simpson to second.4–0
- 3Aranda homered to center (409 feet).2–0
- 2Simpson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Jankowski scored, Walls out at second, Rortvedt to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML TB +135 / NYY -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- TB +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −7 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +64 Elo | NYY 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.52nd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 11–610th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15433rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–18 | 18–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 15–12 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–21 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 16–16 NYY in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 32.