Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jose CaballeroBatting1-2
- Ryan PepiotPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Goldschmidt homered to right (350 feet), Vivas scored and Judge scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 69%
- ML TB +205 / NYY -250
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.6%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -218
- TB +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.4 – 5.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +11 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +68 Elo | NYY 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 10–510th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15433rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–17 | 17–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 14–11 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–19 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 15–15 NYY in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 30.