Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Curtis MeadBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caballero grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, B. Lowe scored on error, Mead safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Volpe.3–2
- 8Mead singled to left, Simpson scored, B. Lowe to third.2–2
- 5Wells homered to right center (384 feet).1–2
- 2Walls hit sacrifice fly to center, Caballero scored.1–1
- 1Judge homered to right center (377 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 66%
- ML TB +185 / NYY -225
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.2%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -197
- TB +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 5.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −2 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +65 Elo | NYY 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.911th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.73rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 11–56th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 15443rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–18 | 18–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 15–11 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–20 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 15–16 NYY in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 31.