Seattle Mariners at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moore hit sacrifice fly to right, Rivas scored.5–3
- 9Raleigh singled to right, Polanco scored and Rodríguez scored, Rivas to third.4–3
- 8Andujar singled to center, Rooker scored, Soderstrom to second.2–3
- 3Rooker singled to center, Kurtz scored.2–2
- 2Mastrobuoni doubled to left, Williamson scored.2–1
- 1Andujar singled to right, Rooker scored, Andujar out stretching at second.1–1
- 1Rodríguez homered to center (407 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 53%
- ML SEA +105 / ATH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- ATH: Elo 45.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATH -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.1 – 5.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +1 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +30 Elo | SEA 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 7–926th of 30 |
| 27th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 148828th of 30 |
| 9th of 301527 | Elo rating | 146425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–16 | 21–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–11 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–14 | 19–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 23–8 ATH in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 31.