Seattle Mariners at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Ben WilliamsonBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Wilson singled to center, Soderstrom scored, Bleday to second, Langeliers to third.6–7
- 10Wilson singled to right, Bleday scored.6–6
- 10Mastrobuoni hit sacrifice fly to left, Raleigh scored.6–5
- 8Williamson singled to right, Raleigh scored, Taylor to third.5–5
- 7Langeliers hit sacrifice fly to right, Rooker scored.4–5
- 4Butler reached on infield single to second, Kurtz scored, Urías to third.4–4
- 4Langeliers homered to left (372 feet).4–3
- 3Williamson singled to center, Tellez scored, Mastrobuoni to second.4–2
- 3Mastrobuoni singled to center, Polanco scored, Tellez to third.3–2
- 3Tellez doubled to right, Crawford scored, Polanco to third.2–2
- 3Polanco singled to left, Thomas scored, Crawford to second.1–2
- 2Wilson singled to right, Bleday scored.0–2
- 1Andujar hit sacrifice fly to center, Rooker scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -120 / ATH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- ATH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.2 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −5 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +58 Elo | SEA 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 6th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 6–927th of 30 |
| 25th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 148729th of 30 |
| 7th of 301528 | Elo rating | 146325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–15 | 20–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 23–7 ATH in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 30.